All Issue

2024 Vol.59, Issue 5 Preview Page

Research Article

A Multi-Scale Analysis of Age-Specific Migration Unidirectionality in South Korea

우리나라의 연령-특수적 인구이동 편향성에 대한 다중스케일 분석

Sang-Il Leea
,
Soyoung Leeb
,
Sechang Kimc*
이 상일a
,
이 소영b
,
김 세창c*
aProfessor, Department of Geography Education, Seoul National University
bAssistant Professor, Department of Geography Education, Catholic Kwandong University
cAssociate Manager, The Center for Educational Research, Seoul National University
a서울대학교 지리교육과 교수
b가톨릭관동대학교 지리교육과 조교수
c서울대학교 교육종합연구원 직원
*Corresponding Author
31 October 2024. pp. 656-672
PDF XML Citation
Abstract

The primary objective of this study is to thoroughly examine the spatiotemporal variations in age-specific unidirectional migration in South Korea, based on a multi-scale research framework utilizing the age-specific migration effectiveness index (ASMEI). The main findings are as follows. First, the global ASMEI analysis revealed a distinctive pattern: high mobility and high unidirectionality in the 20-24 age group, low mobility but high unidirectionality in the 60-64 age group, and moderate mobility paired with extremely high unidirectionality in the 0-9 age group, coupled with the 35-39 age group. Second, the regional ASMEI analysis provided insights into the primary mechanisms driving age-specific migration unidirectionality. For the 0-4 age group, a centrifugal process from Seoul within the Capital Region and a concentration process toward major cities outside the Capital Region were identified as key drivers. For the 20-24 age group, a strong concentration process toward Seoul operating on a national scale was identified as the main driver. For the 60-64 age group, a strong centrifugal process from Seoul and other major cities toward rural areas nationwide was identified as the main driver. The Seoul-specific ASMEI analysis demonstrates Seoul's dominant role in South Korea's migration patterns. Most regions in South Korea are losing their 20-24-year-old population to Seoul, while gaining the 60-64-year-old population from Seoul. This study is considered to have scholarly significance in two key aspects: first, it demonstrates the importance of disaggregated research and the value of multi-scale analysis; second, it serves as a starting point for research on the impact of migration on changes in population structure.

Keywords
migration unidirectionality
age-specific migration effectiveness index(ASMEI)
multi-scale
population redistribution

본 논문의 주된 연구목적은 연령-특수적 인구이동 유효도 지수(ASMEI)를 활용한 다중스케일 분석을 통해 우리나라의 연령-특수적 인구이동 편향성의 시공간적 변동을 종합적으로 파악하는 것이다. 주요 연구 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 전역적 ASMEI 분석 결과 특징적인 패턴이 확인되었는데, 높은 이동성과 높은 편향성을 보여주는 20~24세의 인구이동, 이동성은 낮지만 높은 편향성을 보여주는 60~64세의 인구이동, 이동성은 중간 수준이지만 극단적으로 높은 편향성을 보여주는 0~9세의 인구이동과 그것과 연동하는 35~39세의 인구이동이다. 둘째, 지역적 ASMEI 분석 결과, 주요 연령별로 인구이동 편향성의 주된 메커니즘이 확인되었다. 0~4세의 경우는 수도권 내에서는 서울로부터의 이심화 프로세스가, 비수도권에서는 광역시로의 집중화 프로세스가 주된 추동력이고, 20~24세의 경우는 전국적 범위에서 작동하는 서울을 향한 강한 집중화 프로세스가 주된 추동력이며, 60~64세의 경우는 서울을 비롯한 광역시 및 대도시로부터 전국의 군 지역을 향한 강한 이심화 프로세스가 주된 추동력이다. 서울-특수적 ASMEI 분석은 우리나라 인구이동 패턴에서 서울이 차지하고 있는 지배적인 위상을 잘 보여준다. 우리나라 대부분의 지역은 20~24세 인구를 서울에 잃고 있으며, 60~64세 인구를 서울로부터 얻고 있다. 본 연구는 개별화 연구의 중요성과 다중스케일 분석의 가치를 잘 보여준다는 점과 인구이동의 편향성 연구가 인구이동이 인구 구조에 미치는 영향력의 연구로 나아가는데 시발점을 제공한다는 측면에서 학문적인 의의가 있는 것으로 평가된다.

키워드
인구이동 편향성
연령-특수적 인구이동 유효도 지수
다중스케일
인구재분포
References
1

구형모, 2018, "대학 진학 이동과 대학 졸업자 취업 이동의 공간적 특성 탐색," 한국도시지리학회지, 21(3), 109-122. doi: 10.21189/JKUGS.21.3.8.

10.21189/JKUGS.21.3.8
2

김감영, 2010, "연령별 인구이동 특성에 대한 탐색적 공간 데이터 분석(ESDA): 대구시를 사례로," 한국지역지리학회지, 16(5), 590-609.

3

김감영, 2011, "공간 상호작용 모델에 대한 공간단위 수정가능성 문제(MAUP)의 영향," 대한지리학회지, 46(2), 197-211.

4

김세창･이소영･조대헌, 2024, "청년층 인구이동이 인구 재분포에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구," 한국지도학회지, 24 (2), 73-88. doi: 10.16879/jkca.2024.24.2.073.

10.16879/jkca.2024.24.2.073
5

이상일･김현미, 2021, "인구이동 플로의 연령-특수적 패턴 분석을 위한 방법론 연구 - 우리나라 시군구 단위 인구이동에의 적용 -," 대한지리학회지, 56(5), 537-550. doi: 10.22776/kgs.2021.56.5.537.

10.22776/kgs.2021.56.5.537
6

이상일･김현미, 2022, "우리나라 대도시의 연령-특수적 전출입 플로 분석: 2020년 인구이동을 사례로," 한국지도학회지, 22(2), 1-16. doi: 10.16879/jkca.2022.22.2.001.

10.16879/jkca.2022.22.2.001
7

이상일･이소영, 2019, "우리나라 센서스 지리의 고도화를 위한 제언: 메조-스케일 공간단위의 다양화," 지리교육논집, 63, 1-13.

8

이상일･이소영, 2021, "인구이동 플로의 지리적 시각화를 위한 개념적 명료화: 우리나라 2020년 인구이동에 대한 주제도 제작," 한국지도학회지, 21(3), 23-42. doi: 10.16879/jkca.2021.21.3.023.

10.16879/jkca.2021.21.3.023
9

이상일･이소영, 2023, "인구이동이 인구재분포에 미치는 영향력의 시공간적 역동성 탐색: 우리나라 국내 인구이동에의 적용," 한국지도학회지, 23(1), 1-19. doi: 10.16879/jkca.2023.23.1.001.

10.16879/jkca.2023.23.1.001
10

이상일･조대헌, 2024, "우리나라 인구이동 데이터의 다양성과 상호보완성에 관한 연구 - 주민등록과 등록센서스 데이터의 비교를 중심으로 -," 대한지리학회지, 59(4), 487-504. doi: 10.22776/kgs.2024.59.4.487.

11

통계청, 2020, 통계정보보고서: 국내인구이동통계, 대전.

12

통계청, 2023, 2022년 국내인구이동통계 결과, 대전.

13

Bell, M., Bernard, A., Charles-Edwards, E. and Ke, W., 2020, Comparative measures of internal migration, in Bell, M., Bernard, A., Charles-Edwards, E. and Zhu, Y. (eds.), Internal Migration in the Countries of Asia: A Cross-national Comparison, Springer, New York. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-44010-7_3.

10.1007/978-3-030-44010-7_3PMC10627066
14

Bell, M., Blake, M., Boyle, P., Duke-Williams, O., Rees, P., Stillwell, J. and Hugo, G, 2002, Cross-national comparison of internal migration: issues and measures, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 165(3), 435-464. doi: 10.1111/1467-985X.t01-1-00247.

10.1111/1467-985X.t01-1-00247
15

Bell, M., Charles‐Edwards, E., Ueffing, P., Stillwell, J., Kupiszewski, M. and Kupiszewska, D., 2015, Internal migration and development: comparing migration intensities around the world, Population and Development Review, 41(1), 33-58. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00025.x.

10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00025.x
16

Bernard, A., Bell, M. and Charles-Edwards, E., 2014a, Improved measures for the cross-national comparison of age profiles of internal migration, Population Studies, 68(2), 179-195. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2014.890243.

10.1080/00324728.2014.89024324779398
17

Bernard, A., Bell, M. and Charles-Edwards, E., 2014b, Life-course transitions and the age profile of internal migration, Population and Development Review, 40(2), 213-239. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00671.x.

10.1111/j.1728-4457.2014.00671.x
18

Champion, T., Cooke, T. and Shuttleworth, I. (eds.), 2017, Internal Migration in the Developed World: Are we Becoming Less Mobile?, Routledge, New York.

10.4324/9781315589282
19

Chatagnier, S. and Stillwell, J., 2021, Scale and zonation effects on internal migration indicators in the United Kingdom, Population, Space and Place, 27(6), e2455. doi: 10.1002/psp.2455.

10.1002/psp.2455
20

de Jong, P. A., Brouwer, A. E. and McCann, P., 2016, Moving up and down the urban hierarchy: age-articulated interregional migration flows in the Netherlands, The Annals of Regional Science, 57(1), 145-164. doi: 10.1007/s00168-016-0772-7.

10.1007/s00168-016-0772-7
21

Dennett, A. and Stillwell, J., 2010, Internal migration patterns by age and sex at the start of the 21st Century, in Stillwell, J., Duke-Williams, O. and Dennett, A.(eds.), Technologies for Migration and Commuting Analysis: Spatial Interaction Data Applications, IGI Global, New York, doi: 10.4018/978-1-61520-755-8.ch008.

10.4018/978-1-61520-755-8.ch008
22

Ishikawa, Y., 2020, Internal migration in Japan, in Bell, M., Bernard, A., Charles-Edwards, E. and Zhu, Y.(eds.), Internal Migration in the Countries of Asia: A Cross-national Comparison, Springer, New York.

23

Kotsubo, M. and Nakaya, T., 2024, Moving up and down the urban hierarchy: age-specific internal migration patterns in Japan based on the 2020 census, Population, Space and Place, 30(7), e2786. doi: 10.1002/psp.2786.

10.1002/psp.2786
24

Lee, S.-I. and Kim, S., 2024, Measuring the impact of internal migration on changes in population structure, The Annual Meeting of the American Association of Geographers, Honolulu, Presented on April 17.

25

Lomax, N. and Stillwell, J., 2018, United Kingdom: temporal change in internal migration, in Champion, T., Cooke, T. and Shuttleworth, I. (eds.), Internal Migration in the Developed World: Are We Becoming Less Mobile? Routledge, New York.

10.4324/9781315589282-6
26

Mkrtchyan, N. V. and Gilmanov, R. I., 2023, Moving up: Migration between levels of the settlement hierarchy in Russia in the 2010s, Regional Research of Russia, 13(2), 305-315. doi: 10.1134/S2079970523700727.

10.1134/S2079970523700727
27

Newbold, K. B., 2011, Migration up and down Canada's urban hierarchy, Canadian Journal of Urban Research, 20(1), 131-149.

28

Plane, D. A. and Jurjevich, J. R., 2009, Ties that no longer bind? The patterns and repercussions of age-articulated migration, The Professional Geographer, 61(1), 4-20. doi: 10.1080/00330120802577558.

10.1080/00330120802577558
29

Plane, D. A. and Rogerson, P. A., 1994, The Geographical Analysis of Population With Applications to Planning and Business. John Wiley and Sons, New York.

30

Plane, D. A., 1984, A systemic demographic efficiency analysis of U.S. interstate population exchange, 1935-1980, Economic Geography, 60(4), 294-312. doi: 10.2307/143435.

10.2307/14343512313418
31

Plane, D. A., 1992, Age-composition change and the geographical dynamics of interregional migration in the U.S., Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 82(1), 64-85. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8306.1992.tb01898.x.

10.1111/j.1467-8306.1992.tb01898.x
32

Plane, D. A., 1994, The wax and wane of interstate migration patterns in the USA in the 1980s: A demographic effectiveness field perspective, Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 26(10), 1545-1561. doi: 10.1068/a261545.

10.1068/a261545
33

Plane, D. A., Henrie, C. J. and Perry, M. J., 2005, Migration up and down the urban hierarchy and across the life course, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 102(43), 15313-15318. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0507312102.

10.1073/pnas.050731210216230633PMC1266124
34

Raymer, J. and Rogers, A., 2007, Applying model migration schedules to represent age‐specific migration flows, in Raymer, J. and Willekens, F.(eds.), International Migration in Europe: Data, Models and Estimates, Wiley, Chichester. doi: 10.1002/9780470985557.ch8.

10.1002/9780470985557.ch8
35

Rees, P., Bell, M., Kupiszewski, M., Kupiszewska, D., Ueffing, P., Bernard, A., Charles‐Edwards, E. and Stillwell, J., 2017, The Impact of internal migration on population redistribution: An international comparison, Population, Space and Place, 23(6), e2036. doi: 10.1002/psp.2036.

10.1002/psp.2036
36

Rogers, A., Raquillet, R. and Castro, L. J., 1978, Model migration schedules and their applications, Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 10(5), 475-502. doi: 10.1068/a100475.

10.1068/a100475
37

Rogers, A., Raymer, J. and Little, J., 2010, The Indirect Estimation of Migration: Methods for Dealing with Irregular, Inadequate, and Missing Data, Springer, New York. doi: 10.1007/978-90-481-8915-1_2.

10.1007/978-90-481-8915-1_2
38

Shryock, H. S., 1964, Population Mobility Within the United States, Community and Family Study Center, University of Chicago, Chicago.

39

Stillwell, J., Bell, M., Blake, M., Duke-Williams, O. and Rees, P., 2000, Net migration and migration effectiveness: a comparison between Australia and the United Kingdom, 1976-96 Part 1: total migration patterns, Journal of the Australian Population Association, 17(1), 17-38. doi: 10.1007/BF03029446.

10.1007/BF03029446
40

Stillwell, J., Bell, M., Blake, M., Duke-Williams, O. and Rees, P., 2001, Net migration and migration effectiveness: a comparison between Australia and the United Kingdom, 1976-96: Part 2: Age-related migration patterns, Journal of Population Research, 18(1), 19-39. doi: 10.1007/BF03031953.

10.1007/BF03031953
41

Stillwell, J., Daras, K. and Bell, M., 2018, Spatial aggregation methods for investigating the MAUP effects in migration analysis, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 11(4), 693-711. doi: 10.1007/s12061-018-9274-6.

10.1007/s12061-018-9274-6
42

Tyrrell, N. and Kraftl, P., 2015, Lifecourse and internal migration, in Smith, D. P., Finney, N., Halfacree, K. and Walford, N.(eds.), Internal Migration: Geographical Perspectives and Processes, Routledge, New York.

43

Xu, Z., 2014, Spatial and longitudinal patterns in county age-specific net migration in the United States 1950-2010, The Professional Geographer, 66(4), 641-652. doi: 10.1080/00330124.2013.868690.

10.1080/00330124.2013.868690
Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Geographical Society
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한지리학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한지리학회지
  • Volume : 59
  • No :5
  • Pages :656-672
  • Received Date : 2024-09-21
  • Revised Date : 2024-10-21
  • Accepted Date : 2024-10-21
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.22776/kgs.2024.59.5.656
Journal Informaiton Journal of the Korean Geographical Society Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
online submission
  • NRF
  • KISTI Current Status
  • KISTI Cited-by
  • KCI 문헌 유사도 검사
  • orcid
  • open access
  • ccl
Journal Informaiton Journal Informaiton - close