Assessment of the Risk Factors from the Autumnal Tropical Storms Using Pointwise Analysis

Eunhee Gil; Namyoung Kang

doi:10.22776/kgs.2024.59.5.609

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2024 Vol.59, Issue 5 Preview Page Next Page

Research Article

Assessment of the Risk Factors from the Autumnal Tropical Storms Using Pointwise Analysis 포인트와이즈 분석에 따른 가을철 태풍의 위험요소 진단

31 October 2024. pp. 609-619

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Abstract

Despite concerns about the damage from autumnal tropical storms, risk for these storms has not been quantitatively defined and thus the geographical distribution of risk is not available yet. This study employs a localized index of tropical storm activity, and tries to examine the geographical risk pattern of the autumnal tropical storms that local residents observe in the East Asian region. The regional risks are effectively captured by looking into the difference of the localized storm activity indexes between August and September. Results show that the autumnal risks become larger in most areas of East Asia, and the seasonal response appears highest around the Ryukyu Islands. In particular, Japan and Vietnam experience increasing tropical storm risks due to the higher number of stronger and slower cases. On the other hand, most coastal regions of China, Taiwan, the Ryukyu Islands, the Korean Peninsula, and the Philippines suffer from larger risks as the intensified storms offset the reduced storm risks from the lower number of cases. The value of this study lies in the findings that provide background information which can help local residents make more reasonable and efficient decisions on mitigating the damage from autumnal tropical storms.

Keywords

Seasonal tropical cyclone activity

Autumn

Risk map

Localized ACE

가을철 태풍의 피해에 대한 경각이 높음에도 불구하고 태풍 위험도에 대한 정의가 부재하며, 따라서 태풍 위험도가 지리적으로 어떻게 분포하는지에 대한 이해도 충분하지 못한 현실이다. 본 연구는 지역 태풍활동도 지표를 활용하여 동아시아 지역민이 실제로 체감하는 기상학적 가을철(9-11월) 태풍의 위험도를 정량적으로 진단하고자 한다. 가을철 태풍의 지역 위험도 특성은 9월 태풍활동도의 지리적 분포를 8월의 것과 비교함으로써 이해할 수 있다. 결과적으로 9월 태풍의 위험도는 8월과 비슷한 수준을 넘어 오히려 보다 넓은 지역에서 증가하며, 특히 류큐 제도를 중심으로 가장 강한 계절 반응을 보인다. 일본 지역과 베트남 지역으로 9월 태풍의 위험도가 증가하는 것은 영향태풍 수의 증가, 강도의 강화 그리고 이동속도의 감소가 모두 영향을 미치기 때문이다. 중국 연안지역, 대만, 류큐 제도, 한반도와 필리핀 북동쪽 해역에서는 영향태풍 수의 감소가 태풍 위험도를 줄이는데도 불구하고 이를 극복할 수준으로 강도의 기여가 상회함으로써 최종 태풍 위험도를 증가시키는 것으로 나타난다. 본 연구의 결과는 지역민들이 가을철 태풍 재해에 보다 합리적이고 효율적으로 대응할 수 있도록 기반 정보를 제공한다는 점에서 가치가 있다.

키워드

계절 태풍활동도

가을철

위험지도

지점별 태풍총누적에너지

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Information

Publisher :The Korean Geographical Society
Publisher(Ko) :대한지리학회
Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
Journal Title(Ko) :대한지리학회지
Volume : 59
No :5
Pages :609-619
Received Date : 2024-08-09
Revised Date : 2024-10-07
Accepted Date : 2024-10-08
DOI :https://doi.org/10.22776/kgs.2024.59.5.609

Journal of the Korean Geographical Society ISSN:1225-6633(Print) 대한지리학회지

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