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2024 Vol.59, Issue 2 Preview Page

Research Article

Variable Summer and Autumn Frequencies of Western North Pacific Tropical Storms in Response to Climatic Conditions

여름철과 가을철 북서태평양 태풍 발생수에 대한 기후적 영향

Namyoung Kang1*
,
Eunhee Gilb
,
Seonghee Wonc
,
Youngeun Kimd
강 남영1*
,
길 은희b
,
원 성희c
,
김 영은d
1Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Kyungpook National University
bGraduate Student, Department of Geography, Kyungpook National University
cSenior Researcher, National Typhoon Center, Korea Meteorological Administration
dGraduate Student, Department of Geography, Kyungpook National University
1경북대학교 지리학과 부교수
b경북대학교 지리학과 박사과정
c기상청 국가태풍센터 기상연구관
d경북대학교 지리학과 석사과정
*Corresponding Author
30 April 2024. pp. 227-235
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Abstract

While the seasonal frequencies of summer and autumn tropical storms in the western North Pacific are roughly at the same climatological level, observation shows annual differences between the seasons along with the interannual variability. This study explores the overall responses of the seasonal frequencies by variable environmental conditions such as El Niño-southern Oscillation and global warming. Analysis reveals that the El Niño environment is more likely to increase the number of summer storms leading to the larger seasonal gap from the autumn storms and the larger total during the storm season (JJASON). The inverse relationship can be applied to the La Niña environment, which induces the smaller number of summer storms, thereby the smaller JJASON total, though the subsequent autumn draws more storms. On the other hand, global warming is more likely to have smaller number of autumn storms than of summer storms, followed by the smaller JJASON total. The results and interpretation employed in the study is expected to provide useful basis for establishing those seasonal forecast models.

Keywords
Tropical storm
Seasonal frequency
Sub-seasonal variability
Environmental conditions

기후 평년기간의 통계에 나타나는 북서태평양 여름철과 가을철의 연평균 태풍 발생수는 비슷한 수준인 것으로 나타나지만 해마다 그 수는 경년 변동을 보이며 오르내리기를 반복한다. 본 연구는 기후환경의 내부진동과 외부강제력에 따라 태풍 발생수의 계절분포가 어떻게 반응하는지를 분석한다. 결과적으로, 엘니뇨 경향의 기후환경은 주로 가을철 태풍보다는 여름철 태풍의 발생수를 증가시킴으로써 계절 간 격차를 키우고 성수기 태풍 발생수의 증가에 기여하며, 라니냐 경향의 기후환경은 주로 여름철 태풍 발생수를 감소시킴으로써 가을철 태풍의 발생수와의 격차를 키우고 성수기 태풍 발생수의 감소를 가져오는 것으로 나타난다. 한편, 지구온난화는 주로 가을철 태풍 발생수의 감소가 계절 간 격차를 키우고 성수기 전체 태풍 발생수의 감소를 불러오는 것으로 파악된다. 본 연구의 결과와 해석 방법은 실제 기후환경에 따른 태풍 발생수 계절예측모델링을 위한 기술적 기반으로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

키워드
태풍
계절 빈도
계절안 변동성
환경조건
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Geographical Society
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한지리학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한지리학회지
  • Volume : 59
  • No :2
  • Pages :227-235
  • Received Date : 2024-03-14
  • Revised Date : 2024-04-05
  • Accepted Date : 2024-04-08
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.22776/kgs.2024.59.2.227
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