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2020 Vol.55, Issue 2 Preview Page

Research Article

Impacts of Land Change on Ecosystem Service Values and Environmental Sustainability in North Korea (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) through the 2030s

북한의 토지이용과 2030년대 생태계서비스 가치변화 특성 및 전망

Hoonchong Yia*
이 훈종a*
aenior Research Fellow, The Institute for Korean Regional Studies, Seoul National University; Lecturer, Department of Geography, SNU; Lecturer, Department of Geography, Chonnam National University
a서울대학교 국토문제연구소 책임연구원; 서울대학교 지리학과 강사; 전남대학교 지리학과 강사
* Corresponding Author
30 April 2020. pp. 97-121
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Abstract

Land change is one of the key determinants of ecosystem services provision in coupled social-ecological systems for sustainability. To date, however, the spatial and temporal impacts of land change on ecosystem service values have never been examined in entire North Korea. Here, this paper presents the first-ever national ecosystem service values in North Korea using Landsat-based land cover classification between the 1980s and 2000s and business as usual scenario through the 2030s. The results indicate that the ESVs per annum decreased from $7,477 million(KRW 8,972.4×109) to $6,864 million(KRW 8,236.8×109) between the 1980s and 2030s using global value coefficients from the widely cited 1997 publication by Costanza and colleagues. Moreover, North Korea is highly likely to suffer from triple environmental jeopardy, including loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, land degradation, and climate change through the 2030s. These findings suggest, in order for North Korea to develop in a sustainable manner, it will face great challenges in the next few decades to manage not only the land-use transitions between agricultural land and forest land, but the trade-offs between provisioning and regulating services, and social-ecological divide as well. Furthermore, the findings highlight that ecosystem services valuation and monitoring in North Korea is critical to sustain the natural capital and achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals in the Korean Peninsula through the 2030s.

Keywords
North Korea(Democratic People's Republic of Korea)
land change
business as usual scenario
ecosystem service values
sensitivity analysis
social-ecological systems
dynamic bicycle model
social-ecological divide
triple environmental jeopardy
environmental sustainability

토지변화는 지속가능성을 위한 사회-생태체계에서 생태계서비스의 제공을 결정하는 주요 요인 중의 하나이다. 그러나, 북한 전역의 토지변화가 생태계서비스 가치에 미치는 시공간상의 영향에 대해서는 지금까지 연구되지 않았다. 이 논문은 국내 연구로서는 처음으로 랜셋인공위성 기반의 토지피복 분류자료를 활용하여 1980년대말부터 2000년대말까지 시계열 토지변화와 2030년대초까지 추세연장 시나리오를 통해 북한 전역의 생태계서비스 가치에 대하여 체계적으로 평가하고 환경적 지속가능성에 대하여 종합적인 관점에서 전망하였다. 1997년에 출판된 코스탄자의 글로벌 가치계수를 적용한 결과 북한의 생태계서비스 가치는 1980년대말 연간 $7.477×109(KRW 8,972.4×109)에서 2030년대초 연간 $6.864×109(KRW 8,236.8×109)으로 감소하였다. 이와 더불어 북한은 2030년대초에 이르러 생물다양성과 생태계서비스 손실, 토지황폐화, 기후변화 등을 복합적으로 포괄하는 삼중환경위험에 노출될 가능성이 높게 나타났다. 이러한 결과에 따라 향후 북한이 지속가능성을 유지하기 위해서는 농업지역과 산림지역 간의 토지이용 전환 뿐만 아니라, 공급서비스와 조절서비스 간의 트레이드오프, 그리고 사회-생태체계의 분열을 관리해야 하는 커다란 도전에 직면할 것으로 예측되었다. 더욱이, 연구 결과는 북한에 대한 생태계서비스 가치평가와 모니터링이 2030년대 한반도에서 자연자본을 지속시키고 유엔 지속가능발전목표의 달성을 위해서 대단히 중요하다는 것을 강조한다.

키워드
북한
토지변화
추세연장 시나리오
생태계서비스 가치
민감도 분석
사회-생태체계
이륜역학모델
사회-생태체계 분열
삼중환경위험
환경적 지속가능성
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Geographical Society
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한지리학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한지리학회지
  • Volume : 55
  • No :2
  • Pages :97-121
  • Received Date : 2020-02-14
  • Revised Date : 2020-04-11
  • Accepted Date : 2020-04-14
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.22776/kgs.2020.55.2.97
Journal Informaiton Journal of the Korean Geographical Society Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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