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Research Article

A Study on the Recent Regime Shift of Summer Extreme Rainfall and its Resulting Change of Synoptic Characteristics in the Republic of Korea

우리나라 여름철 극한강수량의 최근 레짐이동과 그에 따른 종관특성 변화에 관한 연구

Kwonmin Kanga
,
Youngeun Choib*
강 권민a
,
최 영은b*
aMaster Student, Department of Geography, Konkuk University
bProfessor, Department of Geography, Konkuk University
a건국대학교 지리학과 석사과정
b건국대학교 지리학과 교수
*Corresponding Author
31 October 2021. pp. 523-535
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Abstract

The purpose of this study was to identify the most recent regime shift in summer rainfall, especially extreme rainfall in the Republic of Korea and to examine its causes analyzing the changes of synoptic conditions. Summer rainfall was not much variable, with a relatively narrow range of fluctuation before the 1970s, but has constantly increased by the 1980s. In recent years, a abrupt decrease was detected in it. Student’s t-test has defined the recent regime shift because of a rapid decrease of summer rainfall during the recent 10 years(from 2011 to 2020). As a result, the recent distinct regime shift of summer rainfall and extreme rainfalls was appeared in the year of 2013. The year 2013 was a starting point of the abrupt decrease of summer rainfall, especially extreme rainfalls and this regime shift has never been detected in previous studies. The change of synoptic characteristics was identified after the year of 2013. North Pacific High and Tibetan High were more strengthened and expanded resulting in the increase of temperature from the low levels to high atmospheres after the year 2013. Also, a significant decrease of summer specific humidity from middle to high atmospheres and the northerly wind anomalies with warm and dry conditions might bring the decrease of summer rainfall around the ROK.

Keywords
summer(extreme) rainfall
regime shift
synoptic characteristics
student’s t-test
climate change

본 연구는 우리나라 여름철 (극한)강수량의 변동에서 최근 레짐이동을 탐지하고, 레짐이동이 나타난 원인을 파악하기 위해 종관특성의 변화를 분석하였다. 여름철 강수량은 1970년대 이전까지는 변동이 작았지만 1980년대 이후부터 증가 경향이 뚜렷해졌다. 하지만 최근 10년(2011~2020년) 강수량은 급격히 감소하여 이것이 레짐이동을 발생시킬 정도인지를 확인하기 위해 독립표본 t-검정을 적용하였다. 그 결과 여름철 강수량과 극한강수량의 최근 레짐이동은 2013년인 것으로 나타났다. 2013년은 지금까지 탐지되지 않았던 새로운 레짐이동의 발생시점으로 강수량이 급격하게 감소하는 시점이다. 2013년 이후에 여름철 종관특성 변화도 나타났다. 여름철에 북태평양고기압과 티벳고기압이 강화되어, 우리나라 상공의 기온이 상승하였고, 비습이 상층과 중층에서 유의하게 감소하였다. 이와 더불어 우리나라로 고온건조한 북풍이 탁월해지면서 강수량을 감소시킬 수 있는 조건이 강화되었다.

키워드
여름철 (극한)강수량
레짐이동
종관특성
독립표본 t-검정
기후변화
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Geographical Society
  • Publisher(Ko) :대한지리학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
  • Journal Title(Ko) :대한지리학회지
  • Volume : 56
  • No :5
  • Pages :523-535
  • Received Date : 2021-08-18
  • Revised Date : 2021-09-20
  • Accepted Date : 2021-09-27
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.22776/kgs.2021.56.5.523
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